特大城市交通出行预测:中国面临的挑战与机遇

作为城市交通规划的一个重要组成部分，城市交通出行预测的发展已经走过了60年。最初的研究工作于20世纪50年代在北美展开，随后延伸到欧洲、澳大利亚、新西兰和南美洲以及中国等发展中国家。作为一个相对成熟的领域，交通规划依然包含着许多新的研究方向，同时专业人员在正确合理的使用商业软件方面还有一定的困难。中国正在经历高速的城市化进程，这意味着对道路、公交系统，机场以及城际间高速公路建设有大量的投资。合理的投资决策需要对未来中国交通拥挤的都市进行出行预测。为了更好的了解中国交通出行预测的发展现状，笔者和几个大城市的交通规划部门以及大学的相关院系进行了探讨和交流。此文的初衷是记录下从会谈中所获得的有普遍意义的发现与印象，以及提供给参加讨论者的意见。     

列车联运网络建设的重要性

概述了欧洲几个国家列车联运网络的建设情况,指出在提高列车运行速度的同时,应提供优质的联运服务。     

Modification of the Highway Capacity Manual two‐lane highway analysis procedure for Spanish conditions

The US Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) methodology is used in Spain to evaluate traffic operation and quality of service. The effect of passing manoeuvre on two‐lane highway operational performance is considered through adjustment factors to average travel speeds and percent time spent following. The procedure is largely based on simulations in TWOPAS and passing behaviours observed during US calibrations in the 1970s. It is not clear whether US driving behaviour and vehicles' performance are comparable with Spanish conditions. The objective of this research is to adapt the HCM 2010 methodology to Spanish driver behaviour, for base conditions (i.e. no passing restrictions). To do so, TWOPAS was calibrated and validated based on current Spanish passing field data. The calibration used a genetic algorithm. The case study included an ideal two‐lane highway with varying directional traffic flow rate, directional split and percentage of trucks. The updated methodology for base conditions is simpler than the current HCM 2010 and does not rely on interpolation from tables. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

How to Write a Literature Review Paper?

This paper discusses the question about how to write a literature review paper (LRP). It stresses the primary importance of adding value, rather than only providing an overview, and it then discusses some of the reasons for (or not) actually writing an LRP, including issues relating to the nature and scope of the paper. It also presents different types of LRPs, advises on reporting the methodology used for the selection of papers for review, and the structure of an LRP. An important conclusion is that the heterogeneity in LRPs is very large. This paper also presents some of the aspects that the authors feel are important structural and contextual considerations that help produce high-quality review papers.     

Regulation,trust and contractual incentives around transport contracts – Is there anything bus operators can learn from public air service contracts?

This paper compares recent experiences in contract negotiation and subsequent commitment in public air services with the bus industry. The heart of the paper is a survey of European and Australian regional airlines, which we mirror with revealed experiences of bus operators. We aim to identify a number of elements in the contracting regimes that have exposed ambiguity and significant gaps in what the principal (e.g., transport department) expected, and what the agent (airline or bus operator) believed they were obliged to deliver. Ultimately airline and bus services are similar in that public authorities procure transport services that are desirable for the society but would be unprofitable without government involvement. In both sectors (theoretically fairly similar) public transport contracts are used, and those usually include obligations and performance measurements. In terms of similarities, one of the surveyed contract details that had a perceived high clarity in both industries was “payment procedures” and amongst those with rather poor clarity was also in both industries “incentives to improve performance and grow patronage”. We also show differences between regional air services and bus operations with regard to performance measurement and pre-specified obligations. Because of the strong safety culture around air services we find that regulation and trusting partnerships are even more important to aviation than to the bus sector. Because of the high level of trust but also because of simpler and more complete contracts in aviation, there is much less (re-)negotiation going on compared to the bus operations.     

Towards a simplified performance-linked value for money model as a reference point for bus contract payments

The burgeoning commitment to contracting the delivery of bus services through competitive tendering or negotiated performance-based contracts has been accompanied by as many contract payments schemes as there are contracts. We are now well placed to design a simplified performance-linked payment (SPLP) model that can be used as a reference point to ensure value for money, given the accumulation of experiences throughout the world which have revealed substantive common elements in contracts. Whether the payment to the operator is framed as a payment per passenger or as a payment per service kilometre, the SPLP identifies efficient subsidy outcomes that are linked to a proxy indicator of net social benefit per dollar of subsidy. We illustrate how the SPLP model can be applied to obtain the gross (subsidy) cost per passenger (or per passenger km) from measures of gross cost efficiency and network effectiveness. This model can then be used as part of a benchmarking activity to identify reference value of money prospects in respect of passengers per $ subsidy outlay by adjusting for influences not under the control of the service provider. A single framework to identify contract payments to operators, and to assess (i.e., benchmark) operator performance on critical KPIs, is provided by internalising critical key performance indicators (KPIs) in the design of the SPLP. The proposed SPLP model is sufficiently general to be independent of the procurement method (competitive tendered or negotiated, for example) and of the treatment of revenue allocation (net or gross based contracts), with the additional advantage of being able to assess value for money for government.     

The Myth of Travel Time Saving

Abstract

The idea that the main benefit of improvements to transport infrastructure is the saving of travel time has been central to transport economic analysis. There is, however, little empirical evidence to support this proposition. Indeed, in the long run average travel time is conserved, implying that travellers take the benefit of improvements in the form of additional access to more distant destinations made possible by higher speeds. Such a perspective, based on considerations of the value of access, has implications for economic appraisal, modelling and policy.     

Choosing Public Transport—Incorporating Richer Behavioural Elements in Modal Choice Models

The development of behaviourally richer representations of the role of well-established and increasingly important influences on modal choice, such as trip time reliability and accounting for risk attitude and process rules, has moved forward at a fast pace in the context of automobile travel. In the public transport setting, such contributions have, with rare exception, not been considered. In this paper, we discuss and empirically illustrate the merits of advanced modelling developments aimed at improving our understanding of public transport choice, namely the inclusion of reliability in extended expected utility theoretic forms, to recognize risk attitude and perceptual conditioning, the consideration of passenger crowding and its inclusion in linear additive models, and the role of multiple heuristics in representing attribute processing as a way of conditioning modal choice. We illustrate the mechanics of introducing these behaviourally appealing extensions using a modal choice data set collected in Sydney.     

Role of the Railways in the Future of Air Transport

Abstract

The role of the railways in the air transport industry is usually limited to provision of access to airports. However, the development of high-speed rail networks and the congestion and environmental problems faced by the air transport industry suggest the railways could have a greater role in working with the airlines to provide an integrated transport service for medium-distance journeys (up to 800 km). Many air journeys involve two flights and a transfer at a hub airport. The alternative being investigated here would replace air journeys by a rail journey and a flight, and a transfer between them at the hub airport. Such integration could offer a positive alternative to aircraft on some routes and lead to railway journeys to airports becoming part of air transport services, and not only to provide access to them. Integration could therefore provide a better use of available air capacity rather than duplicating some high-speed rail routes and services.